Short version
In my view, this is not a crash. It is a broad, fast fall: house prices fell in every capital city in the same quarter, for the first time in 15 years. Fear grows where the facts are missing, so start with the facts about your own position.
The news this week
On 5 November 2026, David Jones went into voluntary administration and receivership, the first time in its 188-year history. Its stores and website are still trading while the receivers review the business. It employs more than 6,000 people across 38 stores in Australia and New Zealand.
It isn’t the only one. In October, Victorian caravan maker Essential Caravans went into administration, putting about 200 jobs at risk. Earlier this year, in February, Novati Constructions, a Sydney builder founded in 1971, did the same.
The courtesy driver who took me home from my last car service is worried about his job. He’d heard all kinds of figures about Volkswagen, and fear spreads faster than the facts. The facts are these. Volkswagen made a profit in the first half of 2026, though a smaller one. Then, from July to September, it lost about 5.9 billion euros, mostly from one-off charges. It has agreed with its unions to cut 100,000 jobs by 2030.
People are genuinely worried. Staff are being let go and good businesses are in trouble. If you’re close to retirement, the worry is sharper, because there’s less time to make up ground.
So, is this a crash?
In my view, no, though the fall is real.
Prices are falling, and quickly. Cotality says national home values fell 1.2 per cent in October, the seventh fall in a row, and are now 6.7 per cent below their March peak. Capital city values have fallen faster than in any downturn of the past 40 years. And in the September quarter, Domain found house prices fell in every capital city at once, for the first time in 15 years.
That is a broad, fast fall. Whether it becomes more is not something anyone can promise you either way. It deserves a calm look, and calling it a crash today only feeds the fear.
Fear fills the gap
Fear fills the space that a lack of knowledge leaves. When you don’t know where you stand, every headline lands on you.
There are two kinds of fear in property, and I’ve seen both since 1997.
When prices run up, it’s the fear of missing out. People buy too much, too fast, on someone else’s numbers.
When prices fall, it’s paralysis, by analysis or by plain fear. People sell at the wrong time, or sit still when a small move would have helped.
Both lead to emotional decisions, and I’ve watched each one set people back by decades.
In a storm, you want someone on the line
A pilot flying into a storm doesn’t want a pep talk. They want an air traffic controller on the line: someone calm, who can see the whole picture and tells them exactly where they are.
That is what good information does for you. It doesn’t stop the storm. It tells you where you are in it.
What to do before fear decides for you
I won’t tell you what to do. I’ll model your situation, show you the pathways, and give you sound information, so the fear has nowhere to sit.
You can start on your own today:
- Write down where you stand: what you own, what you owe, what comes in each month and what goes out.
- Look at your own numbers, not the headline. A national figure is a measure across millions of homes; yours is one home.
- Be clear on your time frame: when will you need the money, and for what?
- Give a big decision a few days. A week of bad news is a poor time to make a choice you’ll live with for twenty years.
If you’d like a clear picture of your own position, talk to me first. The first call is always free.
Nicholas Lockhart
Education only, not personal or financial advice.